ASSESSING THE STUDY OF CLIMATE CHANGE TREND IN VIETNAM: A CASE STUDY IN DANANG CITY

Lê Văn Thăng

Abstract


ABSTRACT

This paper aims to present the results of trend analysis of climate change in Vietnam, a typical case study in Danang City. With the use of statistical analysis by non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, the research conducted the test of climate change trend based on the review process of precipitation and temperature trends. The results were evaluated based on the statistical analysis at the 0.05 level by ProUCL 4.1 software. The research has shown clear signs of climate change related to precipitation and temperature factors. The general situation of precipitation change in Danang had the upward trend in observed time series (p <0.05). For each specific season, there exists increasing trend of the precipitation in January, March, August and decreasing trend in June of observed period. According to the scenario in 2100, the average precipitation in Danang will increase about 1.04% in comparison with the period 1980 – 1999. Regarding the temperature factor and based on the results of the Mann-Kendall test, the June’s average temperature in Danang will increase about 0.3150C in every ten years. Therefore, the urgent solutions are required to reduce and adapt to climate change.

Keywords: Climate change, trend, precipitation, temperature, Mann-Kendall.